Kyrgyzstan and Russia in a new defence agreement to fight ISIL

BISHKEK (TCA) — According to the Defence Ministers of Kyrgyzstan and Russia, present circumstances demand that a new defence agreement be finalized between the two countries with the aim of reaching a regional structure to protect Central Asia from the Islamic State of Iraq and Levant (ISIL) and Islamic extremism.

Talks between Kyrgyz Defence Minister Abibilla Kudaiberdyev and his Russian counterpart Sergey Shoigu for a new military agreement are ongoing to offer an answer to a new threat represented by the Islamic State that is expanding in the Middle East.

If it is true that ISIL or IS (Islamic State) as it is called may now be a serious concern of Europe and Western foreign policy, it appears that the threat to Central Asia may also be exaggerated. The exaggeration relates to the threat and number of Central Asia militants in ISIL, who come from within and outside Central Asia with different scopes and interests. Nobody really knows how many Central Asian militants are fighting in the ranks of ISIL; figures are completely different and vary from a few thousand (2000 to 4000) to few hundred, but all figures are the result of a guesswork and extrapolated from various reports without a real basis. In any case it should be noted that one of the main terrorist groups of Central Asia, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), has recently declared its support for IS. IMU is well known to have as the main objective the overthrowing of Uzbekistan regime but it will certainly not mind to extend its reach to all Central Asian countries.

From the other side the Central Asian governments, mainly in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, need to de-route the attention from acute internal problems, and using the IS threat to restrict certain freedoms seems quite logical. At the same time Russia is looking to impose a regional militarism under its leadership and in some way to return to the position that was under control already in 2005. Here again the IS threat will come very handy. Finally there are xenophobic groups in Russia that do not hide their opposition toward the presence of Central Asian migrants, accusing them of spreading Islamic radicalism and associating them with the IS and its expansion. All this certainly contributes to developing a new fear of a perspective danger that can be opposed only by a new military pact with Russia. Now it remains to be seen how the drafting of a new agreement between Kyrgyzstan and Russia will comply with the terms indicated in the Kyrgyzstan National Security Concept (NSC) that in 2012 was signed into law to provide the basis for a long term strategic policy of Kyrgyzstan for security reasons and military bases.

There is no doubt that the entire Central Asia region is a militarily weak geopolitical area and that the large majority of its population and the millions of migrants to Russia are basically moderate in their political and religious thinking. Various political leaders of the region are using the IS threat as a reason to restrict liberties and pursue their own agenda. At the same time such alarmism creates a security claim that demands the Russian umbrella with all long-term consequences and the unwillingness of certain circles to go in this direction.

Due to existing agreements Russia already has a consolidated long-term military presence in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, but from 2005 it has not controlled the Tajik-Afghan border, but Russia surely wants to return. Furthermore, Uzbekistan’s exit from the CSTO has made the Russian control over the region more complicated and the logic is to re-establish such position using the IS threat and the US and NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan.

If the IS threat to Central Asia should not be underestimated and any development should be kept under control, the evident exaggeration and exploitation of its danger to the region seems more the result of a political and military convenience of various players than a real situation.