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*[Chronicle of the events – Investigations over the plane crash]

 Poland uncertain whether to reveal Tu-154 black box records

01:24 23/04/2010

Polish investigators have not yet decided on whether to make public data from flight recorders of the Tu-154 plane, which crashed on April 10 in western Russia, killing Poland’s first couple and other top officials.

Poland’s chief prosecutor Andrzej Seremet said Polish prosecutors will postpone revealing the black box contents until they obtain other necessary information from Russia. The final decision on whether to disclose flight details is expected in two weeks.

"As soon as they [flight recorders] are analyzed in Poland, we would probably decide to make their content public," he said.

Seremet also said that he would "not oppose revealing the contents unless they are of private nature."

Polish investigator Zbigniew Rzepa said experts are currently trying to synchronize records obtained from the flight data and voice recorders. Russian investigators, experts and Polish specialists are jointly investigating the causes of the deadly crash. Polish military prosecutors, however, have opened their own investigation into the accident.

Russian air traffic controllers earlier said the crew "did not listen" to recommendations to divert to another airport and landed without permission.

WARSAW, April 23 (RIA Novosti)

http://en.rian.ru/world/20100423/158707604.html

 Russia, Poland seek clarification of reasons behind air crash that killed

Kaczynski

14:55 24/04/2010

Russia and Poland are interested in clarifying the reasons behind the air crash that killed Polish President Lech Kaczynski, top officials from the two countries said Saturday.

A Russian deputy prime minister, Sergei Ivanov, said at a meeting with Polish National Defense Minister Bogdan Klich that the data from flight recorders of the crashed plane will make it possible to rule out any unnecessary speculation on the issue.

Russian air traffic controllers earlier said the crew "did not listen" to recommendations to divert to another airport and landed without permission.

Poland’s chief prosecutor Andrzej Seremet said earlier that Polish prosecutors would postpone revealing the black box contents until they obtain other necessary information from Russia. The final decision on whether to disclose flight details was expected in two weeks. Klich urged investigators to speed up the probe into the deadly air crash.

"Clarification of the reasons for this tragedy is the most important task for the Polish and Russian governments. This is joint responsibility. We need to speed up work on it," he told journalists after the meeting with Ivanov.

MOSCOW, April 24 (RIA Novosti)

http://en.rian.ru/world/20100424/158727675.html

 Polish premier to give information on Kaczynski crash on Wednesday

15:35 25/04/2010

Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk on Wednesday will provide full information about the first stage of the investigation into a recent crash that killed Polish President Lech Kaczynski, government press secretary Pawel Gras said on Sunday.

Gras said the first stage of the investigation was over, after which Polish experts would go to Moscow to continue work with their Russian colleagues.

WARSAW, April 25 (RIA Novosti)

http://en.rian.ru/world/20100425/158738146.html

 Poland ’satisfied’ with Russian investigation into Kaczynski crash

20:27 24/04/2010

Poland expressed on Saturday satisfaction with the Russian investigation into a crash that killed Polish President Lech Kaczynski on April 10.

A Polish delegation headed by Defense Minister Bogdan Klich visited the Interstate Aviation Committee (IAC), a civil body that oversees civil aviation in the CIS, an alliance of former Soviet republics.

"The Polish side expressed satisfaction with the carrying out of the investigation...and also with the large volume of work undertaken in a short time," an IAC statement said

MOSCOW, April 24 (RIA Novosti)

http://en.rian.ru/world/20100424/158730723.html

 Polish PM Tusk to speak on Kaczynski air crash investigation

01:22 28/04/2010

The prime minister of Poland will on Wednesday provide full information on the first stage of the investigation into a recent air crash that killed President Lech Kaczynski, a government spokesman said.

Pawel Gras said Donald Tusk will "present full information regarding the first stage of work by the commission and all institutions investigating the crash circumstances."

Gras said the first stage of the probe into the crash was over, after which Polish experts would go to Moscow to continue work with their Russian colleagues.

WARSAW, April 28 (RIA Novosti)

http://en.rian.ru/world/20100428/158778049.html

 No major revelations to come from Kaczynski plane crash investigation, Polish PM

21:35 28/04/2010

Major revelations are unlikely to arise from the decoding of the black boxes from the Polish presidential plane, which crashed recently near Smolensk in Russia, the Polish Prime Minister said on a press conference on Wednesday.

"Do not expect sensational revelations to come from the decoding of the black boxes of the presidential plane," Donald Tusk said.

WARSAW, April 28 (RIA Novosti)

http://en.rian.ru/world/20100428/158791226.html

 Putin, Tusk discuss investigation into Kaczynski crash

21:47 29/04/2010

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and his Polish counterpart Donald Tusk discussed in a phone conversation the investigation into the plane crash that killed President Lech Kaczynski, Russian government’s press service reported on Thursday.

Putin and Tusk expressed satisfaction about the level of cooperation between the Russian and Polish bodies investigating into the crash.

MOSCOW, April 29 (RIA Novosti)

http://en.rian.ru/world/20100429/158808005.html

 Probe should show true reasons of Kaczynski plane crash - foreign minister

15:59 02/05/2010

A joint Russian-Polish commission will be able to find the true reasons of a recent plane crash that killed President Lech Kaczynski, Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said on Sunday.

Sikorski said in an interview with CNN that in his opinion the plane crash was due to a combination of several factors: extremely bad weather, a rather primitive aerodrome and the pilot’s error.

The Polish top diplomat rejected the speculations that the air crash could have been the result of deliberate actions.

Russian investigators, experts and Polish specialists are jointly investigating the causes of the deadly crash and Polish military prosecutors are conducting their own investigations.

WARSAW, May 2 (RIA Novosti)

http://en.rian.ru/world/20100502/158844062.html

*[Political aftermaths]

 Polish opposition gains, ruling party leads-polls

Thu Apr 22, 2010 1:56pm EDT

WARSAW, April 21 (Reuters) - Poland’s main opposition party received a significant boost after the death of President Lech Kaczynski, but the ruling Civic Platform maintained its lead, according to a poll released on Thursday.

The Law and Justice party, led by Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the late president’s twin brother, was backed by 35 percent of Poles, according to a poll for broadcaster TVN by Millward Brown SMG/KRC. The figure was 14 percentage points above its showing in the last survey, taken before last month’s plane crash that claimed Kaczynski’s life and 95 others.

The Civic Platform of Prime Minister Donald Tusk remained in the lead, with 41 percent support among Poles, down 6 points from the last poll. Of the remaining parties, only the leftist SLD party would be entitled to representation in parliament after securing 6 percent backing. Tusk’s junior coalition partner, the Peasants’ Party, on 3 percent would not secure enough support to gain a seat.

Polls have also show that parliament speaker and Acting President, Bronislaw Komorowski, would win in the June presidential elections against any other candidate. (Reporting by Chris Borowski)

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE63L2GK20100422

 Instant view: Jaroslaw Kaczynski to run for Polish presidency

Mon Apr 26, 2010 11:00am EDT

WARSAW (Reuters) - Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the twin brother of Poland’s late president Lech Kaczynski, will be the candidate of his right-wing opposition Law and Justice party (PiS) in a June presidential election. President Kaczynski was killed along with 95 other people, mostly senior political and military officials, in a plane crash in Russia on April 10. Acting President Bronislaw Komorowski, who is the candidate of Poland’s ruling centrist Civic Platform (PO), is favored to win the June 20 election, opinion polls show, but Kaczynski may benefit from an upsurge of sympathy for his family.

Below are comments by politicians and analysts.

RADOSLAW MARKOWSKI, POLISH ACADEMY OF SCIENCES:

"Much depends on...the vision of his party that he will be presenting. He really is in a difficult situation. He has some chances but on the other hand they are slim as the time to prepare is very short. "The question is whether he would want to talk about the future or only dwell on the past...

"If he gets 35 percent then this would be a success compared to what his brother would have won if he had not died in the tragic crash."

RAFAL CHWEDORUK, INSTITUTE OF POLITICAL SCIENCE AT WARSAW UNIVERSITY

"After the recent events, Polish politics is a lot less predictable, so we have to be very careful with any kind of forecast. Jaroslaw Kaczynski is almost guaranteed to reach the second round of the election because there is no alternative for the conservative right.

"The drama of the recent situation could result in stereotypes against PiS fading and its candidate could attract people who previously did not vote.

"Bronislaw Komorowski remains the favorite. Polls shows him with a strong lead, but we have to remember that two weeks before the last presidential election in 2005 (current Prime Minister and PO leader Donald) Tusk had a lead over Lech Kaczynski of several percentage points and he still lost.

KRZYSZTOF BOBINSKI, HEAD OF UNIA & POLSKA THINK-TANK

"I believe that his chances reflect the general support for PiS and Lech Kaczynski. It will be difficult for him to win beyond 20-25 percent of the votes.

"In reality, it won’t be him running, it will be his brother... His campaign team will play on sympathy for his brother. He will be saying that his brother was badly represented in the media, that he was underestimated.

"Kaczynski would have a chance to win only if the other candidates made mistakes. This is a difficult situation for everybody. This is not a normal election campaign but I think that generally political attitudes (preferences) have not changed among voters."

GRZEGORZ NAPIERALSKI, LEFTIST OPPOSITION PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE:

"If he wants to finish Lech Kaczynski’s mission, then it means we will go on with the old-school politics of conflict and disputes. We should put an end to such politics."

(Compiled by Kuba Jaworowski and Gareth Jones)

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE63P1RR20100426

 Late Polish president’s twin brother to seek top job

Gareth Jones and Gabriela Baczynska

Mon Apr 26, 2010 12:10pm EDT

WARSAW (Reuters) - Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the twin brother of Poland’s late president, declared his candidacy on Monday for a presidential election but political analysts said the combative nationalist was unlikely to win.

Poles are due to elect a new president on June 20 following the death of Lech Kaczynski, along with 95 other people, mostly senior Polish officials, in a plane crash in Russia on April 10.

Despite an upsurge of sympathy for the Kaczynski family, opinion polls show Acting President Bronislaw Komorowski of the centrist Civic Platform as the most likely election winner.

Lech Kaczynski, elected president in 2005, had been expected to lose the election to Komorowski.

"In reality, it won’t be him (Jaroslaw Kaczynski) running, it will be his brother. His campaign team will play on sympathy for his brother," said Krzysztof Bobinski, head of the Unia & Polska Foundation, a Warsaw think-tank.

"Kaczynski would have a chance to win only if other candidates make mistakes. This is a difficult situation for everybody. This is not a normal election campaign but I think political attitudes generally have not changed among voters."

Jaroslaw Kaczynski, a former prime minister who also heads Poland’s main opposition party, the right-wing, eurosceptic Law and Justice (PiS), said he wanted to continue his brother’s conservative mission. "Poland is our great shared obligation. We are required to overcome our personal pain and to take on this mission despite the personal tragedy. That’s why I have taken the decision to run for the presidency of Poland." he said in a statement.

Lech Kaczynski and his wife Maria were buried in state funeral in Krakow on April 18. Komorowski took over as acting president on Kaczynski’s death in his capacity as speaker of parliament, the second highest ranking position in Poland’s state hierarchy.

SYMPATHY VOTE

The decision to run will have been difficult for Kaczynski both personally and politically. Many Poles see him as a divisive figure whose spell as premier in 2006-7 put a strain on Poland’s relations with Germany, Russia and the EU.

Polish media also say he has yet to tell his ailing 83-year-old mother of Lech’s death.

The election outcome matters for Poland, the European Union’s largest ex-communist member. Although Prime Minister Donald Tusk and his government hold most power, the president can veto laws and also has a say in foreign and security policy.

Lech Kaczynski had irked the Tusk government by blocking health, pension and media reforms. He and Jaroslaw had also resisted government efforts to push for the swift introduction of the euro in Poland.

A TNS OBOP opinion survey conducted on April 8-14 and published on Monday showed support for PiS had risen by nine percentage points since March to 33 percent, though it still lagged Tusk’s market-oriented, pro-euro PO on 52 percent.

The Kaczynski twins were senior members of the pro-democracy Solidarity trade union that toppled communism in 1989. The union no longer has significant political clout but on Monday its leader, Janusz Sniadek, publicly backed Jaroslaw Kaczynski’s presidential bid.

Other candidates for the presidential election include Waldemar Pawlak, whose Peasants’ Party is the junior partner in Tusk’s coalition government, and Grzegorz Napieralski, leader of the leftist SLD opposition party.

"After the recent events, Polish politics is a lot less predictable," said Rafal Chwedoruk of Warsaw University’s Institute of Political Science.

(Additional reporting by Kuba Jaworowski; Writing by Gareth Jones; Editing by Angus MacSwan)

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE63P1QJ20100426

 Over 20 applicants plan to run for president in Poland

21:23 26/04/2010

The Polish Central Election Committee has received applications from 23 candidates planning to participate in the country’s presidential race, a committee spokesman told RIA Novosti on Monday.

Acting President Bronislaw Komorowski has set June 20 as the date for early presidential elections, which will determine the successor to late president Lech Kaczynski, who died in a plane crash on April 10.

Many experts believe that only the strongest applicants will be able to receive the required 100,000 signatures to be officially registered as candidates. It is widely thought that Komorowski, the late president’s twin brother, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, Deputy Premier Waldemar Pawlak and democratic leader Grzegorz Napieralski can get the needed signatures by the May 6 deadline.

However, only Komorowski and Kaczynski, who has pledged to continue the policies of the deceased president, have any real chances for the post, experts say.

WARSAW, April 26 (RIA Novosti)

http://en.rian.ru/world/20100426/158756505.html

 Komorowski favorite in upcoming Polish presidential election - survey

03:53 27/04/2010

Poland’s acting President Bronislaw Komorowski is the favorite to win in the Polish presidential elections in June, a survey conducted by Millward Brown SMG KRC center said.

According to new data, the Polish Central Election Commission has received applications from 22 candidates planning to participate in the country’s presidential race. Earlier information said 23 candidates applied for the election.

The survey, which was conducted among some 1,000 respondents in Poland, said Komorowski would get 47% of the vote in the first round of the election and 57% in the second.

Komorowski has set June 20 as the date for early presidential elections, which will determine the successor to late president Lech Kaczynski, who died in a plane crash on April 10.

WARSAW, April 27 (RIA Novosti)

http://en.rian.ru/world/20100427/158760685.html

 Polish politicians warn election campaign could turn ’nasty’

23:16 27/04/2010

With almost two months to go before presidential elections in Poland, politicians have warned the election campaign could become aggressive, Polish Radio said on Tuesday.

Civic Platform’s Stefan Niesiolowski said the campaign would be confrontational, and not the civil exchange of views that some were hoping for.

"Law and Justice pretend they are patriots and they want to get Poland out of the hands of non-patriots," he said.

His view was echoed by former prime minister Leszek Miller, of the Democratic Leftist Alliance, who said passions would be running high. He predicted that the air crash near west Russia’s Smolensk on April 10, which killed President Lech Kaczynski, his wife, and 94 others, would become an election issue.

The choice of Lech Kaczynski’s twin brother, Jaroslaw as Law and Justice candidate will keep the recent tragedy centerstage in the election campaign, their opponents say.

"When coffins are used in an election campaign it can only be about emotion. Poles will have to go through this. There won’t be anything about policy or platforms, only emotions," Miller told Polish Radio.

Law and Justice’s Mariusz Kaminski has denied his party will conduct a negative campaign or play on sympathies related to the Smolensk tragedy.

"It will be a different campaign than Poland has known in the past 20 years. It will be a debate about people, characters and opinions but it won’t be dirty," he said.

Twenty two candidates have formally filed the required 1,000 signatures of support to run for the presidency. They now have until May 26 to collect a further 100,000 signatures.

The first round of elections will be on June 20, and if no candidate receives the required 50% plus of the national vote, a second round between the two top candidates will take place on July 4.

According to a recent survey, Poland’s acting President Bronislaw Komorowski is the favorite to win in the Polish presidency June.

The survey conducted by Millward Brown SMG KRC center said Komorowski would get 47% of the vote in the first round of the election and 57% in the second.

WARSAW, April 27 (RIA Novosti)

http://en.rian.ru/world/20100427/158777032.html

 Interview: ’The Only Politically Acceptable Explanation Is To Blame Polish Pilots’

April 28, 2010

Twenty-two candidates are planning to participate in Polish presidential elections following the April 10 plane crash in Russia that killed President Lech Kaczynski and dozens of members of the country’s top military, political, and church elite. The candidates include the president’s twin brother Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the former prime minister.

As the country reels from anger and shock over the crash, Poles are also facing the possibility of a shift toward warmer relations with Moscow once the country is under new leadership. Evidence of such a thaw could be seen in today’s decision by Moscow to release a batch of previously sealed files related to the 1940 Katyn massacre.

RFE/RL Georgian Service correspondent Nino Gelashvili talked to political expert Przemyslaw Zurawski vel Grajewski of the Natolin European Center in Warsaw and the University of Lodz about the emerging political situation in Poland.

RFE/RL: April 10 must have been a very emotional day. What were you most worried about upon hearing about the crash? Zurawski vel Grajewski: Well, political stability is not the best word, but perhaps the political "balance" in Poland. Because even though there were politicians from all political camps who died in the crash, it was still the presidential camp — connected to the Law and Justice Party — that suffered the largest number of casualties. And this was the main party of opposition to the government’s Civic Platform Party. Try to imagine 80 politicians from the U.S. Republican Party dying in a plane crash. That was the scale of the impact on the Polish political scene.

RFE/RL: How important was Lech Kaczynski in determining your country’s domestic and foreign policy?

Zurawski vel Grajewski: He was a public enemy of the government. So Poland is deeply divided now. This has been the situation for the past two years. The president was the official head of the minority camp. I stress the word "official" since the real operational head was his twin brother. And the president was the target of very cruel and, in my opinion, unjust attacks during his presidency.

On the other hand, his supporters think that he was the symbol of a policy based on the dignity of Poland — Poland as a real independent country that has its own point of view and that respects the point of view of smaller neighbors from the region, and not only that of great powers from the West. So for his camp, and for me as well, he was the symbol of an independent position — the subject, not the object, of Central and Eastern Europe in relations with France and Germany, as well as Russia.

RFE/RL: Current polls show the Civic Platform candidate Bronislaw Komorowski, the parliament speaker and acting president, with a strong lead over Jaroslaw Kaczynski. But those polls were conducted before Kaczynski formally declared his candidacy. The elections are in mid-June. Is it possible to predict an outcome for the vote at this point?

Zurawski vel Grajewski: Every public poll that has been conducted in Poland since 1989 has proved to be wrong. They never guess the real result. I have no idea what the reality is right now. What I can say is that Komorowski was heavily criticized publicly for the speeches he gave during the period of mourning [following the crash]. They were very official and delivered without real sorrow. It was obvious that they weren’t sincere.

But I don’t think we can build any prognosis on that simple statement because a president is something more than a man who delivers speeches at funerals. There are two months ahead, and a lot depends on the results of the investigation of the origins of the crash.

RFE/RL: Are you hopeful the real cause of the crash will be uncovered?

Zurawski vel Grajewski: By the Russians? Of course, no. Whether the Polish services are able to do that, since the crash took place on Russian territory, I don’t know. What I can say is that the only politically acceptable explanation is to blame Polish pilots. Because any other explanation would be cause for a huge scandal.

It could have been a mistake by the Russian air-traffic controllers, or the crash of a Russian-produced and Russian-repaired plane, or a deliberate action by the Russians — all three of these scenarios would cause a huge international scandal. So the only acceptable political explanation is to blame the Poles. I think this will be the result of the Russian investigation. RFE/RL: Many people think Poland’s relationship with Russia is going to change. Some say they will grow warmer, some say colder. Both of those views are now colored by the events of April 10. Do you see any potential for ties to improve?

Zurawski vel Grajewski: There’s an expectation among a large part of the Polish population that ties will improve. In my opinion, it’s very naïve, but that’s the way it is and that’s part of our political reality. It’s based on emotions. Ordinary Russians showed sympathy for our tragedy. On the other hand, we have to remember that there are real, tangible contradictions of interests between Poland and Russia. I mean contradictions in the energy dimension, contradictions as far as the future enlargement of NATO to include Georgia and Ukraine.

A lot depends on the Americans. If they maintain this "reset" policy with Russia, there will be no external power to support us. If we are too weak to oppose Russian interests, that could help reduce tensions. But the real reason for the reduction would be the fact that Russia was winning the game, not because the contradictions would disappear. Very few people speak publicly about this contradiction of political interests. The ones who could died in the crash.

RFE/RL: Do you think the Polish people care about the stance their future leader will take on Russia? Will it be an important election issue?

Zurawski vel Grajewski: Yes, I think it will. But Poland is deeply divided on that. I mean, there are a lot of people who think that we are too small and too weak to act independently. We currently have no American support, and of course no support from the EU, which is governed by the pro-Russian Germany and France. So we can do nothing — that’s one point of view.

The other point of view — represented by a minority, by the late president’s camp — is that we have no other choice but to defend our own interests in cooperation with our smaller partners in the region. But I think this political camp is on the retreat. It has suffered the worst casualties.

I’m afraid that this naïve point of view of relying on Western support will prevail and that we will try to "reset" our relations with Russia as well. And I’m afraid that Russia will play the way it played in 2006, with the Hungarians and the Czechs on one side and Poland on the other. At that time, the Czechs and Hungarians were good guys, and we were bad. Now, I think, we’ll be chosen to be the good guys while the Baltic states will be the bad guys. And Poland won’t be able to support Georgia as a state. The Polish state is paralyzed now. It will take a year, maybe two. ...It’s a dangerous situation for all of us.

http://www.rferl.org/content/Interview_The_Only_Politically_Acceptable_Explanation_Is_To_Blame_Polish_Pilots__/2027121.html

 Poland’s acting president riding wave of popularity

18:31 28/04/2010

Poland’s acting president, Bronislaw Komorowski, has one of the highest ratings of any Polish politician in recent years, the Polish News Agency reported on Wednesday, citing pollster CBOS.

Komorowski was elevated to the post following the death of President Lech Kaczynski in a plane crash on April 10, and is a leading candidate in the early presidential elections scheduled for June 20.

The opinion poll, carried out on April 8-19, put Komorowski’s confidence rating at 65%, an eight-point increase over the March poll and a recent record for a politician in Poland, the Center for Public Opinion Research (CBOS) said.

The acting president is followed in the ratings by two colleagues from the center-right Civic Platform party, Prime Minister Donald Tusk and Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski. The pair have traditionally had good levels of credibility, and also received bumps compared to the March poll, with 57% of respondents expressing confidence in Tusk and 54% in Sikorski.

Other major candidates in the upcoming presidential elections are Deputy Prime Minister Waldemar Pawlak, with a confidence rating of 45%, and the late president’s twin brother Jaroslaw Kaczynski, with 42%. The leader of the Law and Justice party improved his rating 13 points and saw his negatives drop from 51% to 28%.

The poll looked at the preferences of 1,056 adult Poles. The respondent had the opportunity to choose several candidates.

MOSCOW, April 28 (RIA Novosti)

http://en.rian.ru/world/20100428/158788537.html

*[Lech Kaczynski – brief biography]

 Kaczynski Often a Source of Tension Within E.U.

By JUDY DEMPSEY and DIANE CARDWELL

Published: April 10, 2010

Lech Kaczynski, who died Saturday in a plane crash in western Russia, rose from childhood fame as an actor to become president of Poland. He was 60.

Half of an unusual tandem of power, Mr. Kaczynski was elected president in 2005 from the nationalist-conservative Law and Justice Party, led by his identical twin, Jaroslaw, whom he later appointed prime minister.

Swept into office as voters repudiated the group of former Communist officials who had dominated the country’s politics for much of the preceding decade, Mr. Kaczynski and his brother struggled at the top. They frequently put Poland on a collision course with its European Union partners and Russia, while polarizing voters at home with a shift to the right.

“His approach is to first destroy and then think about what to build,” Lech Walesa, hero of the Solidarity movement and former president, said in 2006 of Lech Kaczynski, who once served as Mr. Walesa’s national security chief.

Poland joined the European Union in 2004, but Mr. Kaczynski often preferred dealing with the United States.

As soon as Mr. Kaczynski took office in the presidential headquarters in the center of Warsaw, he forged close relations with Ukraine and Georgia, determined to bring them closer to NATO and eventually have them admitted to the American-led military organization.

His defense of those two countries often upset leading members of the European Union, especially Germany, which was concerned that an expanded NATO would make Russia feel threatened and lead to new East-West tensions. Mr. Kaczynski, however, believed passionately that a strong NATO would prevent Russia from reasserting its influence over Eastern and Central Europe.

Mr. Kaczynski was born on June 18, 1949, when Warsaw was in ruins. His suspicions of Russia and Germany had deep roots. His father, Rajmund, an engineer, and his mother, Jadwiga, who studied linguistics, had been active in the Polish resistance against the Nazis.

He and his brother — who could be told apart only by a mole on Lech’s left cheek — became famous at age 12 when they starred in a film version of “The Two Who Stole the Moon,” a beloved children’s story. They began their rise to political prominence in the underground Solidarity movement in the 1980s.

They were close, at first, to Mr. Walesa, but they fell out with his movement during the 1990s, claiming that the intellectuals, led by Adam Michnik, had made too many compromises with former Communists and the secret police. The brothers remained active in politics, with Lech Kaczynski serving as justice minister from 2000 to 2001 and gaining popularity by emphasizing his tough stance against crime.

He became mayor of Warsaw in 2002, and critics began to see his brand of nationalism — he and his brother wanted a complete break with the past by purging the civil service and the media of former Communists — as overzealous and provincial. But the twins were helped in their rise to power by an image of honesty in a country that had witnessed one corruption scandal after another for years. Yet he was not reluctant to create tensions with Moscow or Berlin. Poland joined NATO in 1999, part of the first bloc of former Communist countries, along with Hungary and the Czech Republic, to join the alliance.

“It was obvious to us that this was the only tough security structure there was in the world, and that the membership of NATO would only mean benefits for Poland,” Mr. Kaczynski said in an interview last year. He added that did not mean that Russia’s leaders had “abandoned their ideas to regain influence, like using natural resources, natural gas, as a weapon and trying to influence politicians.”

“Indeed,” he said, “back in the early 1990s, my impression was that Poland’s entry into NATO would finally resolve those questions. And here I must admit I was wrong.”

He lobbied hard for the United States to deploy part of its controversial shield against ballistic missiles in Poland, arguing that it would enhance Poland’s security against Russia. Those plans, supported by President George W. Bush, were scaled back by President Obama.

A devout Roman Catholic, Mr. Kaczynski was regarded as skeptical of the European Union while he fought to defend Poland’s sovereignty against Brussels and to protect its traditional, conservative values. In 2008, he argued against ratifying the union’s Lisbon Treaty for fear its prohibition of discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation would become Polish law.

Mr. Kaczynski’s star had been fading in recent years, and he would have faced a difficult re-election battle this year.

His wife, Maria, an economist, also died in the crash. Mr. Kaczynski is survived by his brother, Jaroslaw, who was forced to step down as prime minister in 2007 after a bruising party defeat at the polls. He is also survived by his daughter, Marta; two granddaughters, Ewa and Martyna; and his mother.

Correction: April 10, 2010

An earlier version of this obituary gave an incorrect age for Lech Kaczynski.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/11/world/europe/11kaczynski.html