POLAND: PiS gains at campaign finish, but opposition with majority

The ruling Law and Justice’s (PiS) lead over the opposition Civic Coalition (KO) has widened over the past week, according to the latest IBRiS poll for the Onet.pl news portal. Still, the opposition could count on a minimal majority in the [lower house] Sejm.

A vote for the PiS was declared by 34.9% of those surveyed by IBRiS. This represents a 0.9 percentage point increase in support compared to the previous poll, conducted a week ago. KO came in second in the poll, with 28.1% of those responding to the survey now wanting to vote for it. In this case, support has fallen by 0.8 percentage points over the past week.

Support for the next two election committees - the Third Way [a coalition of the agrarian opposition Polish Peoples’ Party (PSL) and political newcomer Poland 2050] and the Left - is almost identical. The Third Way received 10.3% of indications, with a drop in support by 0.3 percentage points. The votes obtained, however, would allow the coalition to exceed the 8% electoral threshold, and the Third Way a would not repeat the fate of the United Left, which did not get into the Sejm in 2015 (7.55%), or Solidarity Election Action (AWS) in 2001 (5.60%), which found itself out of parliament after governing for four years.

Exactly one in ten Poles wants to vote for the Left. The joint list of the New Left and the Razem (Together) thus received the same result as a week ago. However, it increased its lead over the radical-nationalist Confederation, next in the survey, which recorded the largest drop in support among all parties - by 1.4 percentage points. In the IBRiS poll, the Confederation was indicated by 8.3% of respondents.

A simulation of the distribution of seats shows that PiS would have 197 votes in the Sejm, which would not allow it to rule alone. The Civic Coalition would bring 154 deputies to the Sejm, the Third Way would bring 41, and the Left would bring 38. Together, the three groups would have a minimum majority of 233 deputies. Even a government coalition with the Confederation (29 seats) would not have been enough for the United Right.

IBRiS conducted the poll Oct. 10-11 using the CATI method (by telephone) on a sample of 1,000 adult Poles.

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