After the regional and Senate elections that took place in late October, the political mandate of Prime Minister Mirek Topolánek and his government is hanging by a thread. Experts agree that it is only a question of time before Topolánek’s colleagues in the Civic Democratic Party (ODS) hold him accountable for the disastrous loss of voter support, but it is still unclear what form these repercussions will take. “The elections were a referendum on Topolánek and his reforms,” said Charles University political analyst Tomáš Hubený. “Since he clearly failed, some sort of punishment must come.” ODS heads will debate their future heatedly in the coming days, and are expected to follow in the footsteps of their political rivals in the Social Democratic Party (ČSSD). After losing the regional and Senate elections in 2000, ČSSD heads allowed Miloš Zeman to remain prime minister while electing Vladimír Špidla to replace him as party chairman. Špidla then led the ČSSD to victory in the 2002 parliamentary elections. The current ODS plan would allow Topolánek to remain prime minister until the end of his term in 2010, but remove him from his post as party chairman during the December party congress. “Their goal will be to stay in power while affecting some sort of a change,” said Zdeněk Zbořil, a political analyst at the Institute of International Relations in Prague.If Topolánek were to abdicate as prime minister, the Czech Republic could be left without a government for an unforeseeable amount of time, re-enacting the scenario of the 2006 parliamentary elections, when it took seven months to find enough defectors from the opposition to support the current government.On Oct. 22, Topolánek’s government barely survived the fourth confidence vote in just two years. The opposition ČSSD, emboldened by its landslide victory in the regional elections, hoped to finally topple the Cabinet and is calling for early elections next spring. Only 97 deputies voted in support of the government, but the opposition failed to secure the 101 votes it needed to succeed. “If the positions were reversed and it was Topolánek asking for a confidence vote, he would have lost,” said ČSSD Chairman Jiří Paroubek after the vote.Meanwhile, Topolánek pretended that all was fine, refusing to give in to the inevitable. “Our mandate is fragile as it has always been, but we will push on with the reforms that are needed,” he said.In the lower house, defectors and even deputies belonging to governing coalition parties have finally acknowledged the public dissatisfaction with the government’s work. “Finding support for a new ODS coalition could be very hard,” said Hubený. “The only option left would be a grand coalition with the ČSSD or a minority government tolerated by the Social Democrats, but the ODS would not like playing second fiddle to the opposition and carrying all the blame for unpopular decisions.” It seems the Czech Republic faces a two-year political crisis. While the government technically has a majority in both houses of Parliament, the positions are split on key issues like health reforms, the U.S. radar treaty and the state budget. “If Parliament continues as is, the government will have to find support individually for each law it wishes to pass,” said Hubený. “It is unlikely that any radical reforms will take place in the near future.”After the disastrous result of the second round of Senate elections Oct. 25, Topolánek acknowledged that voters are not satisfied with his reforms and policies. “I will have to consider whether to run for party chairman at the December congress,” he said. “Since the election is a direct result of our government policies, changes in the Cabinet will also have to be made.”The elections are likely to impact foreign policy. The government will have to rethink two frequently discussed topics of international consequence: the U.S. radar base and the Lisbon Treaty. While the planned radar base has been a cornerstone of foreign policy for Topolánek, who strove to strengthen transatlantic relations and sideline Lisbon Treaty ratification due to his party’s Euroskepticism, these government positions are now likely to switch.According to polls, almost three-quarters of the population oppose the missile-defense architecture plans set out by the Czech-U.S. radar treaty, the realization of which is now more uncertain than ever. “Ratification of the treaty by Czech Parliament is ever more unlikely due to the clear message sent by Czech voters,” said Hubený. “It also remains to be seen whether the new U.S. administration will want to increase military spending on a radar station in Central Europe when it is faced with a financial crisis at home.”On the home front, the future of the Lisbon Treaty appears more optimistic. Its ratification could become a useful bargaining piece in negotiations between the ODS and the pro-Lisbon ČSSD. “Regardless of who will be prime minister, quick ratification of the Lisbon Treaty could help establish some form of ceasefire” for the Czech Republic’s upcoming EU presidency, said Hubený.

Six moves that weakened the mandate of Topolánek’s government What went wrong

The botched regional and Senate election campaign

The Prague Post