In this issue:

1. Fresh unrest breaks out in southern Kyrgyzstan

4. Uzbek fertilizer producers aim at foreign markets

1. Fresh unrest breaks out in southern Kyrgyzstan (Kyrgyzstan, May 20, 2010-issue 617)

JALAL-ABAD — Kyrgyzstan’s health authorities say at least two persons have been killed and dozens injured as ethnic Kyrgyz tried to storm an Uzbek-funded university in the south of the country.

The violence comes with national tensions high in the wake of the ouster of Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev last month. In the incident on Wednesday, some 5,000 Kyrgyz tried to storm the university in Jalal-Abad founded by a local ethnic-Uzbek leader, Kadyrzhan Batyrov. The crowd was throwing stones and breaking windows. Police fired into the air in an attempt to disperse the crowd. Earlier on Wednesday, protesters marched through the town demanding Batyrov’s arrest. They accuse him of provocations that have fueled interethnic tensions. Batyrov backed supporters of the interim government in last week’s turmoil in Jalal-Abad, a Bakiyev stronghold.

Attempted ‘coup’ in southern Kyrgyzstan foiled Jalal-Abad and other southern Kyrgyz regions were the scene of violent clashes late last week between Bakiyev sympathizers and supporters of the interim government, who recovered government buildings occupied by supporters of ousted President Bakiyev. The clashes in three southern cities, Jalal-Abad, Osh, and Batken, where pro-Bakiyev supporters took over local government buildings on May 14, left one dead and at least 60 wounded. Kyrgyzstan’s national security service has detained former state officials and lawmakers, who, it claimed, were plotting regime change in southern Kyrgyzstan. "An investigation established that Usen Sydykov colluded with Iskhak Masaliyev and with more than 40 former lawmakers of the Ak Jol party and with others to overthrow the regime in the Osh, Jalal-Abad and Batken regions, to instigate mass unrest, to organize abductions and to advance political demands," the National Security Service said on Monday. "They planned to make use of the current unstable situation to get ex-parliamentary deputy Masaliyev elected to the post of parliamentary speaker and acting president," the National Security Service said. "On May 13, at Sydykov’s orders, his supporters in the Osh, Jalal-Abad and Batken regions incited mass disturbances. Organized and armed groups made attempts to seize administrative buildings, overthrow the local authorities and replace them with their own people. They were also plotting the abduction of Osh regional governor Sooronbai Jeyenbekov and members of the interim government Azimbek Beknazarov and Ismail Isakov, and also interim Emergency Situations Minister Duishenkul Chotonov," it said. "But special services have frustrated Sydykov, Masaliyev and others’ plot. On May 14, they were arrested as suspects and placed in a detention facility on charges of forced seizure of power and organization of mass disturbances," the National Security Service said. Sydykov is the leader of the New Kyrgyzstan party and a former adviser to Bakiyev. He was one of the leaders of the 2005 Tulip Revolution that brought Bakiyev to power. Masaliyev heads the Communist Party and is an ex-parliamentary deputy. A Bishkek court ruled on Monday that Masaliyev should be detained for two months in connection with the takeover of government buildings in southern Kyrgyzstan last week. Masaliyev, 50, has officially been charged with organizing mass disorder on May 12-13 in the southern cities of Osh, Batken, and Jalal-Abad. Masaliyev was arrested on May 14 with Usen Sydykov after alleged recordings of the two were made public by the interim government in which the two people were heard planning the takeover of the administration buildings in those three cities. Kyrgyzstan’s national television company broadcast a recorded telephone conversation that is allegedly between Sydykov and Masaliyev in which the two discuss coordinating the protests in the three southern cities. Ex-Bishkek Mayor Nariman Tyuleyev, another alleged organizer of protest rallies on May 12-14, has been placed on a wanted list. (Interfax, RFE/RL)

2. Pakistan: a country in search of new identity between war and isolation (Central Asia, May 20, 2010-issue 617)

BISHKEK (TCA) – Editor’s note: During a fact finding mission organized by the defence attache of the Pakistan Embassy in Almaty for Kazakh and Kyrgyz media, delegates from the two Central Asian countries were escorted to Islamabad, Lahore and Karachi. The Times of Central Asia’s publisher, Mr. Giorgio Fiacconi, was one of the delegates. This report brings his impressions to our readers.

A visit to Pakistan’s excellencies

ALMATY (TCA) — The defence attache of the Pakistani Embassy in Almaty, Brigadier Saleem Butt, organized a full program where we witnessed the realities of Pakistan and there is no doubt that many deserve great consideration for the excellent work they are doing under present conditions. This is a brief report of my weeklong Pakistan visit. The visit started in the capital, Islamabad. A trip originally planned to Peshawar was cancelled due to the security reasons but this did not stop Prof. Dr. Shafraz Khan, director of the Area Study Centre (Russia, China and Central Asia) of Peshawar, to meet the delegates in Islamabad and share several publications they have been publishing. The centre provides a critical view of various issues effecting Pakistan with an historical background for readers and authorities to better understand the present situation (www.asc-centralasia.edu.pk). My friend Shuja-ul-Mulk, former general manager of the National Bank of Pakistan branch in Bishkek, also came to Islamabad, and he described the difficulties, feelings and hopes of the average Pakistanis, living in constant fear, but with faith in a better future. Also in Islamabad, the International Islamic University has a huge campus on about 600 hectares, where Islamic education in nine different faculties is provided to about 20,000 students. The main core of professors comes from Egypt, although there are many from all over the region. In October 2009, the IIU fell victim of an attack by two suicide bombers, killing five innocent students and injuring forty. The attack proved how terrorism makes no distinction between civil and military targets. Wherever we are, terrorist objectives remain the same: disseminate terror and fear. To get acquainted with military strategy and the actual operation in border areas where Pakistan’s army is doing their hardest work, we visited the National Defence University (NDU) and ISPR (Inter Service Public Relation). At NDU, elites (military and civilian) are trained in the art of leadership through “multi-disciplinary educational and research programs that are mainly focused on security, defence and strategic studies”. The think tank at NDU is the Institute for Strategic Studies, Research and Analysis. What struck me the most in this visit was the outstanding global environment run with perfect military precision. A visit to ISPR in Rawalpindi and a meeting with Major General Athar Abbas was quite informative and enlightening regarding Pakistani strategy in the war that is consuming tremendous energy and life (www.ispr.gov.pk). In Lahore, we visited the Museum of Lahore, which highlights Gandhara civilization and the different aspect of Hindu civilization. Pakistan, with its incredible numbers of newspapers, catering to the population of 170 million, and numerous TV stations, displays not only the strength of a democratic society, but the importance of media in forming public opinion. It appeared that they are very much focused on internal problems and their immediate neighbour India, and much less concerned about Central Asia, although they expressed interest in greater cooperation with the region. Going to Karachi, delegates were taken to the Karachi Port Trust, Aga Khan University and GEO TV headquarters (publisher of The News), giving us a picture of different aspects of modern life. From transport and trade to education, communication and media, Pakistan is living its daily life between international isolation and a strong desire to expand its connection with the world. In the meantime, educational institutions are providing the new generation with skills for future leadership and media are developing public opinion intent on projecting the country toward modern thought. The Aga Khan University (www.aku.edu), chartered in 1983, stands today as the most outstanding example of a medical university which includes a hospital. Admission is strictly based on merit and students unable to cover fees are provided financial help. With vital help from the Aga Khan Development Network, new leaders are formed with help from professors and lectures from all over the world. What struck me most, despite all the great features of Pakistan, was the total lack of cooperation with Central Asian institutions, universities and organizations. This is reflected not only in the educational and military field, but also in culture and business. The war in Afghanistan and the security problem and the lack of direct communication appears to be the main reason. There is no doubt that this situation is a deterrent, but there is a need of more interaction between Central Asia and Pakistan. Pakistan seems to be waiting for something to happen, but they need to be proactive and their desire to cooperate is hampered by their lack of knowledge of Central Asia. A new approach is required where products, culture and potential are exposed to Central Asia and cooperation agreements are finalized between various parties.

Pakistan: the Afghan and Indian dilemma

Trapped between two serious situations on the west and east, Pakistan is trying to manage its survival between the ongoing dispute with India and the escalating war in Afghanistan. With about four million Afghans on Pakistan territory and many with Pakistani citizenship, Pakistan is paying for a political mistake made several years ago when Afghan refugees were not restricted to a specific border area, but were allowed to integrate. Today this causes serious concern and fuels resentment in the northwest part where Pakistani nationals see jobs going to Afghans for a fraction of the salary paid to Pakistanis. In Peshawar, Rawalpindi and other areas, rent increases are blamed on Afghans filling apartments with many people to defray the high cost. Resentment is growing as jobs are lost, often resulting in loss of housing. From the other side, Afghans see Pakistan as a country conducting a proxy war on behalf of America against Islam and supportive of a foreign occupation. Inside Pakistan, citizens are disillusioned by American principles ideology. They have developed a considerable anti-American feeling and a fear that American troops may extend their presence into Pakistan. In the face of evidence that the tribal areas are hosting Taliban supporters, Americans feel that Pakistan is not doing enough to combat terrorism, although admitting that the cooperation has increased notably. Drone attacks are tolerated by Pakistan, but a move from these actions to a military presence will certainly meet considerable opposition, creating more problems than solutions. To give Pakistan’s Army space to manoeuvre and show results is certainly a way to avoid escalation in the conflict and to win over Pakistanis yet to have joined the ranks of anti-Americanism. After Musharraf, Pakistan has acquired considerable self-conscience as the courts and media have emerged and the military elite are redesigning their role. It has also been announced that on July 15, meetings between the Foreign Ministers of Pakistan and India will resume in Islamabad. This is indeed good news considering that all peace talks were stopped in 2008 following the terrorist attack in Mumbai. Compromises and difficult decision must be made for terrorism to be jointly tackled and the relationship between the two countries to be rebuilt. Pakistan must concentrate on fighting terrorism on the Afghan border and move forward in the interest of the nation.

A show in a show: Pakistan-India flag lowering ceremony

WAGHA, Pakistan (TCA) — Conducted with a strict colourful British style, the flag lowering ceremony in Wagha takes more than one hour, under the loud music and chants of both sides. Hundreds of Pakistanis packed both sides of the road. On the Indian side, thousands were seated in similar arrangement to watch the ceremony. It was a show within a show. Singing and yelling “Pakistan Zimbadad!” (Long live Pakistan!) met with a stronger “Industan Zimbadad!” (Long live India!), creating an atmosphere of joy and power. The costume and the ceremony alone were outstanding. Every movement by soldiers performing the ceremony was accurately watched by the crowds. At the beginning of the ceremony, the heads of both garrisons meet in neutral territory, gates from both sides are opened and officers stand on the border of India and Pakistan. After a military salute they shake hands in a gesture of mutual respect. The gates are closed again and the show continues with a salute to the public. Then one team of soldiers from each side approach the gate which is opened again. Officers then approach the flag pole and start unwinding the rope with slow motions, indicating respect for the flags. A small team of soldiers watch the ceremony from both sides with trumpet music signalling the operation. Slowly the flags come down in respectful silence and the flags are collected. Officers salute each other again as the ceremony is completed with the closure of the gates. With the history of conflict between the two countries and the talks which stopped completely following the Mumbai terrorist attack, peace talks scheduled to resume in July bring hope that peace will prevail. This solemn flag lowering ceremony should continue as a gesture of respect and friendship.

3. LETTER FROM THE STEPPE Kazakhstan’s gusher spectre: apocalypse later (Kazakhstan, May 20, 2010-issue 617) By Charles van der Leeuw special for TCA

ALMATY — “A geyser of oil and gas erupted at the Deepwater Horizon with a shrill hiss, followed about two minutes later by a green flash and a thunderous concussion.” “From the wheelhouse of a ship parked next to the Deepwater Horizon oil rig, the signs of trouble started out mundane - a hiss of escaping gas - and became, in a matter of moments, almost Biblical. Birds dropped from the air. The sky rained mud. And, as men from the rig struggled to save themselves from the aftermath of an explosion on April 20th, the Gulf of Mexico itself caught on fire.” Such are the testimonies reported by survivors in the April “accident” on the oil rig Deepwater Horizon in the Gulf of Mexico. Over the weekend following the blast in which 11 people were killed, Kazakhstan’s Prime Minister Karim Masimov ordered thorough and regular inspections of all oil installations in the country’s oil-rich western provinces. Not for nothing, the two regions have a lot more than just oil deposits in common. The fact that, in contrast to those of the Gulf of Mexico, drilling operations in the Caspian take place in shallow waters makes no difference in terms of risks. Conditions deep down, kilometers under the seabed, represent the dangers involved. Like the deposits in the maritime zone off the Mississippi delta, those of the Emba, Ural and Volga rivers into the Caspian Sea are prone to salt dome, which are remains of lagoons that were formed during stages in the earth’s tectonic history when the water retreated and the coast advanced, and became isolated by rock seals in later periods. Since salt is a good conductor, they keep hydrocarbon reservoirs stable even under extreme pressure and temperatures, which in the case of the northeastern Caspian’s deeper deposits tend to exceed 30,000 atmospheres and come close to 1,000 degrees Celsius, both around one-third greater than the average pressure and temperatures in the middle parts of the earth crust. Early exploitation pumped oil, most of it heavy and sour (i.e. with high sulfur levels), out of wells topping the salt domes. Gushers, or blowouts in modern terminology, were frequent and fatal. But in the case of deposits located next to the bottom of a salt dome or, in particular, under a so-called salt tongue or a salt dome bridge, such accidents are sheer trifles as compared to what is likely to happen in case a hole in a salt structure, or - even worse - through a fault into a trap occurs. Then, stabilization agents in the structure are disrupted as a result of which a hot-glowing mass of oil, gas, water, sulfur, sand, rock splinters and what else bursts into the sky with a force that, in the worst case, can already come close to the power of the bombs that America dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. It is sulfur which represents the greatest danger distinguishing the northern Caspian depression from the Gulf of Mexico. Whereas the latter’s salt domes, as a rule, stand up in a centripetal manner, the Caspian ones are centrifugal in shape and tongues and bridges are frequent. This has caused separation of sulfur and hydrogen from the oil and the formation of high-pressure concentrations of hydrogen sulfide (H2S). “When you breathe in H2S, it goes directly through your lungs and into your bloodstream. To protect itself, your body ‘oxidizes’ (breaks down) the H2S as rapidly as possible into a harmless compound,” one explanation on webshells.com reads. “If you breathe in so much H2S that your body can’t oxidize all of it, the H2S builds up in the blood and you become poisoned. The nervous centers in your brain which control breathing are paralyzed. Your lungs stop working and you are asphyxiated - just as though someone had come up and put their hands around your neck and strangled you.” “If exposure at low levels continues, the worker may develop a state of chronic poisoning. In addition to eye and respiratory tract irritation, there will be a slowed pulse rate, fatigue, insomnia, digestive disturbances, and cold sweats,” the description continues. “More dangerous, if exposure at the level of 100 parts per million (which results in eye and respiratory tract irritation and drowsiness after 15 minutes) lasts for several hours, it may result in death within the next 48 hours. Symptoms of chronic exposures at low levels are conjunctivitis (eye infections), headache, attacks of dizziness, diarrhea, and loss of weight. Chronic H2S intoxication is marked by headaches, eye disorders, chronic bronchitis, and a grey-green line on the gums.” According to insiders, workers on the Kashagan rigs risk exposure of up to 200,000 ppm in case of equipment failure, which accounts for a frightening 20 percent of the gas that comes up and is meant to be re-injected into the well. The lethal mix comes out of the ground with a force in the order of a thousand bar. Even if they work (as it appears they failed to do in the case of the Deepwater Horizon), the question remains whether blowout preventors can resist the extreme pressure. There still remains much to inspect indeed.

4. Uzbek fertilizer producers aim at foreign markets (Uzbekistan, May 20, 2010-issue 617) By Dilshod Ashurmatov

TASHKENT (TCA) — Despite the crisis, the Uzbek government continues construction on a fertilizer production complex worth $1.34 billion.

In late March, it was reported that the plant producing ammonia and nitrogen fertilizers would be built in the Navoi region. The main investor is International Petroleum Investment Co. (IPIC), based in Dubai, UAE. The project was approved by the Uzbek government, which signed the agreement providing for the obligations of the Uzbek side and the IPIC. As no new chemical companies have been established in Uzbekistan since the Soviet era, this project is unique. Also, it is the first time that a large investment company is to build something from the ground up in Uzbekistan. The complex will produce 900,000 tons of ammonia and one million tons of urea (nitrogen fertilizer) per year. Germany’s MAN Ferrostaal AG will be the main contractor. These are huge capacities for Uzbekistan with the ammonia production comparable to the annual production of the entire country, and urea production at the new plant alone will be almost double the country’s annual output. Seventy percent of the production will be exported. Actually, the location for the future complex (not far from the Navoi Free Industrial and Economic Zone (FIEZ), which is under construction), was tailored for the export of ammonia and urea. A joint venture, established by the Uzkhimprom and IPIC, will be the project’s operator. Construction of the complex will begin in the fourth quarter of 2010 and is expected to be completed in 2013. The project will be financed through loans and investments of $804 million, obtained by IPIC, $268 million of their own money, and $268 million from Uzkhimprom. President Islam Karimov has already called the future production “an important signal that even amid the crisis Uzbekistan is implementing strategic projects”. Market analysts see no obstacles in implementing the project, because the most important components — financing and raw materials – have already been secured. A key challenge for all producers of nitrogen fertilizers is the raw materials supply, particularly, prices and volumes of natural gas supplies. The project’s initiators decided to solve this issue by using local gas and raw materials. The Uzbek partners will ensure regular supply of raw materials and provide the necessary infrastructure. According to experts, the main problem of the chemical industry during the crisis is the drop in price competition between CIS countries chemical plants’ production on the world market. “Lately, there has been a decline in fertilizers consumption and, accordingly, in their cost,” said Ilkhat Tushev, analyst at Central Asia Investments. “In mid-August 2008, one ton of urea cost $800, now the price has dropped to $300.” Tushev believes that under these circumstances, Uzbekistan should find a partner and Arab investors are most suitable for this role. “Today, chemical projects in the Middle East, implemented through Arab investments, have problems selling their products,” said analyst Anvar Jumayev. “The only outlet for cheap chemicals with a narrowing Chinese market is exports to Europe, which may well be one of the new market outlets for the Uzbek products.” Reduced demand in the CIS has deprived Uzbek producers of the advantage of low prices, forcing them to further reduce prices in order to continue moving product. Currently, Uzbekistan is handling the task well. Moreover, the Uzbek government, which actually subsidizes hard dumping in the Central Asian markets, is making sure of that. According to analysts, this tactic allowed Uzbek chemical plants to win the Kazakh fertilizer market dominated by the KazAzot company, whose products became uncompetitive with Uzbek fertilizers. Besides, Uzbekistan has equated Kazakh fertilizers to military goods, putting an end to imports of Kazakh fertilizers to its south. However, according to Anvar Jumayev, Uzbek chemical products can not compete with Arab products on foreign markets. Uzbekistan understands this, but it also can not enter the Chinese market. Under these conditions, low prices are no longer working. This is because of obsolete equipment, poor management, weak position outside the country, and no access to end users. “It seems like the Uzbek authorities decided to follow the principle ‘Those who disturb us will help us’,” believes analyst Dilmurad Kholmatov. According to Kholmatov, most facilities producing mineral fertilizers in North America and Europe are in danger of closure due to high costs. Considering these factors, by the time the complex in Navoi FIEZ will be launched in 2013, there will likely be stable price situation and a growing demand for Uzbek fertilizers.

For further information: The Times of Central Asia