01. Brief Introduction:

Since various months I was planning the project to dedicate an important editorial space to Russia.

My purpose was to introduce our readers to the discovery of a country hailed as basilar for the balance of power in the world. The achievement was not easy to reach. For a couple of reasons. Russia is almost a continent with countless aspects to analyze. On the other side, I wanted to release a special based on a high scientific approach.

The exchange of correspondence with a specialist in Russian matters, dr. Mark A. Smith, allowed me to step forward. As matter of fact, he helped me in a strong way. Then I received the consent of Defence Academy of the United Kingdom for publishing some of his papers.

Therefore, I worked an accessible lay-out as the featured papers involve a certain level of know-how in Russian geopolitics. The first part is a short biographical note about the author (dr. Mark A. Smith); while the second one sums up each paper. Owing to that, the special was ready to go online. Finally!

I took advantage of present introduction to thank dr. Mark A. Smith and Defence Academy of the United Kingdom for having supported my project.

02. Biographical note on dr. Mark A. Smith:

Dr. Mark Smith has worked for the Advanced Research Assessment Group of the UK Defence Academy since 1993, where he specialises in the research of Russian domestic and foreign policy. He previously worked as a researcher at the Royal United Services Institute in London.

He studied at the School of Slavonic and East European Studies at the University of London, and at St.Antony’s College at the University of Oxford, where he wrote a doctoral thesis on Soviet-Latin American relations.

03. Summary of papers published:

Useful advice: each paper can be downloaded on *.pdf format and the relative icon is placed after the "key points" corner.

"The Russian Presidential Succession"

Key Points

* It is currently impossible to say whether Dmitry Medvedev will be the de facto junior partner of Vladimir Putin or will be a fully independent president after the presidential election in March 2008.

* Medvedev could step down after a decent interval and fresh presidential elections could take place, with Vladimir Putin as a candidate.

* Putin may be prime minister for a short time in order to oversee a smooth leadership transition, and then step aside.

* A fully independent Medvedev may find it difficult to manage the various competing factions in the Russian leadership.

* The energy lobby will become an ever-increasing aspect of Russian politics, and the energy factor will become an ever more important aspect of Russian foreign policy.

"Islam in The Russian Federation"

Key Points

* The Moslem component of the Russian Federation has a higher birth rate than the Slavic component. In a few decades, Russia could be a much more Moslem country.

* This will have a profound effect on Russian society, politics and foreign policy, which could move in a more Moslem direction

* Currently the Moslem population is not highly politicised. There is no Moslem lobby in Russian politics. The influence of militant Islam outside the Northern Caucasus is limited, although it does exist.

* If Russian elites attempt to block the emergence of Moslem elites over the next few decades, then tensions could emerge between Slavs and Moslems.

* Slav chauvinism is already in evidence.

"Russia and the Persan Gulf - The Deepening of Moscow’s Middle East Policy"

Key Points

* Vladimir Putin’s visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Jordan in February 2007 is part of Russia’s return to the Middle East.

* The post-Soviet Russian leadership sees the Middle East as an area in which Russia already has wide-ranging political, economic and security interests.

* The widening of contacts with Saudi Arabia and Qatar is a new feature of post-Soviet Russian foreign policy.

* The abandonment of Marxist-Leninist ideology makes Russian foreign policy in the region more flexible.

* Moslem discomfort with US policy in Iraq gives Moscow further opportunities to broaden its presence. Rivalry with the USA is a significant feature of Putin’s Middle East policy.

"Russian Nationalist Movements & Geopolitical Thinking"

This paper covers two topics: contemporary Russian nationalist movements and contemporary geopolitical thinking. The influence of nationalist ideologies on the political mainstream is analysed. The second part of the paper considers some of the main features of Eurasianism in contemporary Russian geopolitical thought, and its possible influence on official Russian foreign policy thinking. In many respects these two subjects are two sides of the same coin: Eurasianism is the foreign policy expression of Russian nationalism.

"Kosovo’s Status: Russian Policy on Unrecognised States"

Key Points

* Russia’s preference for Kosovo’s final status is that of “more than autonomy, less than independence”.

* However Moscow realises that it may have to accept conditional independence as the Western members of the Contact Group do not oppose such an outcome.

* Some elements in the Russian foreign policy establishment have drawn a parallel between Kosovo and possible independence for Transdnestr, South Ossetia, Abkhazia and Nagorny Karabakh. This has also been hinted at by Putin. The western powers reject his parallel.

* Such moves could be a mixed blessing for Moscow, as it would strengthen the case for independence, which could spread to other parts of the Northern Caucasus. North Ossetia could be tempted by an example of an independent South Ossetia.

* Independence from Serbia is a possible option for Kosovo, as this territory has been occupied and effectively controlled by western powers since 1999. Russia has not exercised a similar control in Transdnestr, South Ossetia, Abkhazia and Nagorny Karabakh, which would make it more difficult for these states to emulate possible Kosovan independence.

"Sovereign Democracy: the Ideology of Yedinaya Rossiya"

Key Points

* Post-Soviet Russia has no official ideology. However all political systems require an ideology, just as nature requires air.

* Political stability since 2000 has now led to discussion about ideology in the pro-Putin party of power, Yedinaya Rossiya (YR).

* Deputy head of the presidential administration and YR official Vladislav Surkov outlined the ideology of “Sovereign Democracy” in February 2006. This is a nationalist, statist and collectivist ideology, that presupposes the domination of the political system by the Putin leadership and YR for the next 15 years. The ideology reflects some aspects of the Soviet past, and collectivist traditions of the pre-Soviet era.

* This concept was expanded by YR presidium member Andrey Isayev in June 2006. He says YR’s aim is to restore Russian superpower status. He summarises YR ideology as: statism, the supremacy of ideas over material advantage, the consolidation of the nation around a leader, requirement for a broad social consensus, a striving for justice and freedom.

* This ideology may be seen as the tacit official ideology of the Russian leadership. It is likely to remain the de facto ideology after Vladimir Putin passes from the political scene.

* The debate revealed consensus on one significant aspect: a belief that there could only be one ‘correct’ national ideology; as a result opposition parties are delegitimised.

"Russian Enviromental Problems"

Key Points

* Russia inherited a grave environmental legacy from the Soviet Union. Air and water pollution are extremely high and have had an extremely deleterious effect on health.

* Spending on environmental protection is very low, and is insufficient to clean up the environment. Most major projects are funded by international institutions

* Efforts to uncover information regarding pollution at nuclear and military facilities is hampered by the state’s concern to maintain security.

* Environmental controls and monitoring capacity have been reduced since 2000. The state places more emphasis on economic growth than countering pollution. Consciousness of environmental issues amongst the population is relatively low.

* NGOs play a major role in attempting to raise consciousness and to lobby for environmental conservation and controls. The leadership however is generally averse to such activities, particularly if they have international connections.

"The Russian, German and Polish Triangle"

Key Points

* The Russo-German economic relationship is becoming increasingly important for both sides, particularly in the energy sphere, as evidenced by the agreement on the North European Gas Pipeline (NEGP) in September 2005.

* Russia’s importance as an energy supplier to the EU is also increasing, which enhances her importance in the Russo-EU strategic partnership and reduces the likelihood of her being marginalised in European security affairs as she feared in the 1990s.

* Russia has had to accept the EU widening of 2004. About 50% of her foreign trade is now with the EU.

* The NEGP agreement has increased Polish fears of Russia and Germany doing deals over Warsaw’s head. Moscow is concerned by what it sees as Poland’s excessive Atlanticism and Polish support for “revolutions” in Ukraine and possibly Belarus. Moscow is also concerned about the US acquiring bases in Central Europe, particularly Poland, Romania and Bulgaria.

* Overall, EU widening has not been a negative experience for Russia, and the energy factor increases her importance in Europe.