Are you sure? Is really a crisis out there?

Nothing shows until mid of November that Romania is in danger to be touched by the international financial crisis. Only the opposition of Prime Minister to the increase of wages in Education system was a vague signal, but these two aspects were not directly related until last week. All authorities, including President, Prime Minister and National Bank representatives assured and reassured Romanians that this crisis will not affect us in any way.

But, this year, the electoral campaign started earlier than the 30 days officially allocated for this purpose by law. From beginning of September, PNL (which forms the minority Government) allocated funds for different categories: people who work in Justice, in Police, for local communities with PNL important leaders (not nominated spending), increasing of pensions earlier than planned, in November. Immediately, PSD started to push the term of pension increase for October and succeeded. Also, on 30th of September, the Parliament voted a 50% increase for salaries in Education system. This was law was voted in unanimity, by all Parliament members including PNL members and the Minister of Education which was dismissed after that by Prime Minister Calin Popescu Tariceanu.

First two weeks of campaign were dominated by the fights for public system salaries, because, simultaneously with teaches salaries increase, other categories of employees stated to ask for increases, which is normal. Syndicates agitated the spirits, announced strikes, but the Prime Minister resisted. PSD, which supported the minority government PNL-UDMR, as his leader Ion Iliescu declared last week, don’t want that the Government falls, so they reject the offer pf PDL for a motion on education salaries.

So, the financial crisis idea was accepted by politicians only during last week, after some international companies announced lay-offs for short term and dismisses for next years. Most of important Romanian companies and almost all banking system are owned by foreign companies, who have troubles in own countries. The real estate market boom started also in Romania after EU accession in 2007, but the sales declined from 2008 start. In these conditions we need a “hero” to minimize crisis effects for the population.

Who will be the hero?

After this year summer local elections the political parties started to consider the campaign strategy for this month parliamentary uninominal elections. One of the issues that they confronted (beside the new type of elections - uninominal) was the lack of the “locomotive”. Elections for the Parliament and for President were simultaneous until now, and the candidate for Presidency was the most visible one. Now the presidential elections will be next year and the parties decided to use a similar approach, by nominating a potential Prime Minister “candidate” to carry the messages.

Main parties nominated following Prime Minister Candidates:

• PDL – Theodor Stolojan, former independent Prime Minister under President Ion Iliescu mandate, after Petre Roman was dismissed in September 1991. He was also the president of PNL from 2000 and concluded together with Traian Basescu the alliance “Justice and Truth”.

• PSD – Mircea Geoana, former Romanian Ambassador in United States and actual party president.

• PNL – Calin Popescu Tariceanu, actual Prime Minister and party president.

The real fight in these elections is, as everywhere, the Prime Minister seat. President Basescu is deeply involved in this, wishing that his party, PDL will win the elections. He rejected the option of political parties to form a majority and to ask him to nominate a Prime Minister from this majority. Also he rejected as possible nominations Mircea Geoana or Calin Popescu Tariceanu, no matter what will be the result, if none of their parties will obtain 50%+1 of seats in Parliament. Traian Basescu declared that he will nominate a person in charge to negotiate with parties and to obtain a majority in Parliament, without offering any clue, except what he doesn’t want.

The option for PDL is at least to be the first, not necessarily with 50% +1, which allows to directly form the Government, but to have the best position for negotiations. The fact that PSD is very close to PDL in polls (1-2%) combined with the expected high absenteeism, which is less favorable for PDL and PNL, could lead PSD, with a more stable electorate, to be the first in these elections.

Now intense negotiations are in course between the three parties, in pairs, for the next Government formula, the assumptions being that none will obtain 50%+1 and they never will work in a three formula. Interesting is that the “Justice and Truth” alliance (PD+PNL), which formed the Government after last elections, is not officially dead, even the PNL Prime Minister Tariceanu dismissed the Ministries from PDL in April 2007. This alliance could be resuscitated after the elections. The only problem in this scenario is that Calin Popescu Tariceanu and Theodor Stolojan are both nominated for Prime Minister Seat and is hard to believe that one of them will gave up.

But where is the crisis in this political game?

The three potential Prime Ministers started last week to present plans for avoiding crisis effects, each of them claiming that his plan is perfect. All plans are based on tax reductions and increase of spending in Education, Health and other popular sectors. These plans are hard to believe, due to the decrease of budgetary incomes in next few years. The entire Government shows now an image of hard work, issuing everyday economic decisions, which, of course will apply from 1st of January 2009. This type of campaign was used also by previous Government having as Prime Minister Adrian Nastase, which also produced in last month of mandate a lot of populist decisions, never applied by next Government.

Probably in first two weeks of December we will see who will be the “hero”, after the elections will clarify the political scene and after President Traian Basescu will decide who the nominee is. The President may have in mind a surprise nomination, as he uses to produce.