Please find enclosed the next issue of "PISM Policy Papers": A sea change or a tactical adjustment? Examining the shift in Russia’s policy towards Belarus by Jarosław Ćwiek-Karpowicz.

The most recent PISM Policy Paper outlines the reasons behind Russia’s increasing uneasiness with the incumbent Belarusian president. The author points to the growing importance of the economic calculus in Moscow’s dealings with its erstwhile subordinate and arguably one of its closest followers in the post-Soviet space. Hard-pressed by Russia and yearning to extend his rule even without Russian backing, Alexander Lukashenko may be more responsive to signals sent by the European Union. Once it accumulates enough political will to seize this opportunity, the EU must set its priorities right and make sure that its efforts will place Belarus on a path towards making long-term political and economic headway.

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