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ISIL in Central Asia: threats swiftly becoming reality

Tuesday, 31 March 2015 15:59

Written by Douglas Green

di Emanuele G. - mercoledì 1 aprile 2015 - 2473 letture

LONDON (TCA) — With Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Iran under threat, each from two sides, the self-styled Islamic State of Iraq and Levant (ISIL) is now in an advanced state of capturing Afghanistan. After which, or simultaneously with which, it could launch an attack on the Ferghana Valley. Remaining NATO troops in the region will be unable to stop them and lucky if they can escape. Massive military power is needed to crush the ISIL, but the only two regional powers — Russia and China, which are able to use it, seem reluctant to do so.

There is no doubt that the Taliban have been weakened by over a decade of raids and bombardments, along with numerous arrests and a large number of Taliban members surrendering themselves to the secular regime in Kabul in exchange for pardon and rehabilitation. From what is happening now in Afghanistan, where negotiations are going on between the Taliban and the secular government, it appears that the US, NATO and coalition forces have only opened the doors in Afghanistan for an even more fearsome foe: the Islamic State.

On combined Syrian and Iraqi territory, the ISIL occupies a territory of about the size of England, Wales and Scotland altogether. It also controls parts of Libya. Should ISIL forces, taking control over Afghanistan using a tactic known from the Taliban – namely establishing a network of mid-size strongholds across the countryside encircling urban centres one by one with the aim to attack them from all sides – this will be a bigger threat to Central Asia than the Taliban ever was.

According to some analysts once in Afghanistan, the next aim of ISIL will be to occupy the Ferghana Valley and its surrounding highlands, an area which is shared by Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. From there, ISIL troops could launch deadly attacks against those three states and even straight into nearby China.

‘Considered great threats’

“Since the announcement of the Khorosan Province, covering modern day Pakistan, Afghanistan, India, Bangladesh, and part of neighboring central Asian countries, in January 2015, the ISIL had not only convinced commanders of Pakistani Taliban to declare their allegiance to Al-Baghdadi, the Group had also nominated the Pakistani Taliban commander Hafez Saeed Khan as the emir of Khorosan,” a recently posted report by Deedar R. Khudaidad, born in Afghanistan and a Bachelor in Politics and International Relations at the Edith Cowan University in West-Australia reads. “The allegiance of Hafez Saeed Khan and other Taliban commanders to Al-Baghdadi [the “caliph” of the ISIL – edit.] means that the Pakistani Taliban is no longer under the command of Mullah Omar. […] Around the country, the ISIL commanders recruited men from eastern provinces of Badakhshan, Nuristan and Nangarhar; South and Eastern provinces of Paktia, Logar, Ghazni, Helmand and Zabul; and Northern provinces of Jawzjan, Kunduz and Parwan. By expanding their presence in almost all major provinces of Afghanistan, today the ISIL is not only considered a powerful rival against the Taliban, the group is also considered great threats to the stability and security of Afghanistan, Pakistan, and other neighboring countries.”

The three Northern provinces mentioned border Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. Only Uzbekistan has a clearly marked and closely watched borderline whereas the other two have few official border posts and large numbers of unguarded unofficial ones that can be crossed without any hindrance. Hundreds of Kyrgyz and thousands of Uzbeks and Tajiks (no numbers are known regarding Turkmen and Uygur “fighters”) have signed up to ISIL and slipped into Syria or Iraq to undergo training and obtain experience on the battleground. They are feared to be returning to Central Asia to serve as a fifth column within ISIL in its campaign to add the region to its global domain.

Attack on Central Asia

The scenario looks nightmarish indeed. An ISIL occupation of the Ferghana Valley and surrounding areas may see huge massacres and subsequent savage oppression of the survivors. This will not only expose the capitals of Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan to subsequent attacks, but it would also allow the ISIL to take control over extensive oil and gas fields, metal deposits and processing facilities – including uranium which would enable them to fabricate atom bombs ready for use.

As things look, it could be less a question if but rather when a massive attack on Central Asia will be launched. Will the ISIL forces complete the sieges of Afghanistan’s urban centres including the capital and subsequently take control over them first, or will they give priority to a surprise attack on the Ferghana Valley? It does not look at all as though the remaining NATO forces in Afghanistan will be able to prevent either scenario. Nor are the armies of the Central Asian former Soviet republics expected to be able to wipe the ISIL forces out. They can hardly be considered a match for ISIL given the fact that the armies of Iraq and Syria also prove to be pretty ineffective in annihilating the ISIL. In fact, only the armies of China and Russia could do anything decisive. But they seem to be in no hurry to do so.

Boardrooms and conference rooms

The only political umbrella which brings together Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, China, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan is the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. An observer status in SCO has been granted to Afghanistan, India, Iran, Mongolia and Pakistan. Though the SCO has carried out joint paramilitary exercises of late, it is not considered powerful enough to launch a decisive attack to drive the ISIL out of the region once and for all using hundreds of thousands troops on the ground and sophisticated military equipment. A better equipped organisation for such a mission would be the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) which comprises Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Tajikistan. Both China and Uzbekistan are painfully missing. A logical step would be the integration of both organizations.

“The Moscow conference on security, due in April, will be devoted to international terrorism and the situation in Afghanistan,” Russia’s Deputy Defense Minister Anatoly Antonov told a news conference on March 4, Itar-Tass reported. "There are plans for raising the theme of the situation inside and around Afghanistan, the activity of the terrorist group called the Islamic State and plans for international military cooperation geared to struggle against the terrorist threat," the official was quoted as stating. But if current trends on the ground persist, this is not just “struggle” but all-out war…

For original article please read HERE


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